Monday, March 31, 2008

NL East Preview


Before I get to the NL East preview, I just want to reflect on Opening Day 2008 (for those that didn't play in Japan). Today is probably one of the best days of the year. The new baseball season means that it is spring and that it is almost time to put away all the winter coats. We learned a few things from today's games. The Tigers will not be good unless they can get some consistency from their pen, which is decimated by injuries. Kosuke Fukudome can really hit the ball. His swing is perfect; I compare it to the shot of Ray Allen, it is that technically sound. Eric Gagne will suck for the Brewers this year, and they should trade him before he losses all of his worth.

Now, the AL East Preview

1. New York Mets - The trade for Johan Santana turned them from a fringe playoff team to a guarantee. With his addition, the Mets have one of the deepest rotations in the league. They have Santana, Pedro, Maine and Oliver Perez as their top four pitchers. You can pencil Santana in for at least 17 wins, and if Maine and Perez pitch like they did last year, they will have upwards of 10 victories each. If Pedro can stay healthy, the Amazin's could get close to 70 wins from their rotation. They have a pretty solid bullpen, that features Heilman as the set up man, Wagner as the closer and Feliciano as the lefty specialist. Their line-up is very dangerous. Reyes is the most electrifying player in the league. Wright and Beltran can drive in the runs, and they got a little youth in Ryan Church. The only worry they have are injuries. Alou went down in the spring and the Mets need to stay healthy in the outfield, or they could be in for some periods of low run totals.

2. Philadelphia Phillies - I don't even have to talk about their offense. They can score runs in bunches. They have speed, power and ability to make contact. Their biggest concern is pitching. They have Cole Hamels and Brett Myers in their rotation, but after that, the most consistent pitcher they have is the ageless wonder, Jamie Moyer. At the deadline, they need to pick up a pitcher that is capable of being their third starter. They are going to need their offense to score a lot to account for their shaky pitching. In the bullpen, they aren't that great either. Brad Lidge is their closer and he is injured. He is also a headcase who can't stop things from snowballing out of control. If he blows one save, he won't be right for a week. Tom Gordon, who is old, is the interim closer. He isn't much better than Lidge. He isn't a headcase, but in the past few years, he has given up a lot of runs and a lot of homers. Their weakness is their staff. If they aren't able to get consistency from the pen, they may not make the playoffs.

3. Atlanta Braves - The Braves are unlucky. If they were in any other division, they would probably be a second place team. They are definitely good enough to win a wild card spot, but I don't think that they have enough bullpen help. Their offense should be up there amongst the league leaders. They have three great power hitters in Chipper, Tex and Francoeur. They also have a shortstop who will be one of the league's best in a couple of years. Their pitching situation is not as good as their hitting. They have Smoltz, Glavine and Hudson as their top three. Hudson should be really good this year, but it is the other two I am concerned about. Smoltz is injured, but if he can come back healthy, he should be pretty good. Glavine hasn't been that good in a couple of years. He is missing his location a lot and his lack of velocity hurts him. If they have to rely on Mike Hampton as their four, they are in trouble. Their bullpen is also shaky. Their closer is Soriano, who is more of a set up man. They need to pick up some one that can be a shut down set up man that can come in and bridge the gap between the starters and Soriano.

4. Washington Nationals - They opened their new ballpark with a walk off home run. Other than that, their year won't be that great. They are banished to the cellar of the division. Their line-up will have trouble producing runs. Ryan Zimmerman is going to be a star at the hot corner, but he needs people to get on for him to produce. Hopefully, Lastings Millidge can be the player the Mets thought he would be. Their pitching situation is woeful. They have no starters that can be considered a number two let alone a number one. Their rotation is comprised of mainly fourth and fifth starters. They will give up a lot of runs and their offense can outscore their opponents. The Nats' bullpen is their strongest area. They have Chad Cordero as the closer. He is a tested closer and is one of the league's best. They also have Jon Rauch who is an imposing player and is one of the more reliable set up men in the league.

5. Florida Marlins - The Marlins are going to be atrocious. They got rid of their two best players in the off season. The only comfort they should take is that in probably about 4 years, they will win a World Series. Their offense is going to be centered around Hanley Ramirez. He is the epitome of a 5 tool player. He can hit, hit for power, run, field and can throw. Outside of him, they have career back-ups and untested young players. Their pitching is in the same situation. They have a lot of untested young kids that they hope can pitch pretty well and help them win a few games. They are going to give up lots of runs and hits. Their bullpen is just as bad as the rest of their team. Their closer is Kevin Gregg. He couldn't cut it as a middle reliever in Anaheim, so how could he be any better as a closer. They have no middle relievers or a set up man. If they get a lead, they won't be able to hold it.

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